The Strat.
hellcat's brain · live · week of may 4

35K → 100K · 90 days · Rob Smith methodology · Steve scanning 131 tickers · AI Twin always on
live · steve scanning
loading scan…
⚠ IRAN · TRUMP REJECTED IRAN'S OFFER · ~5 HOURS AGO

Trump walked. Blockade stays. Oil bid. Tape lifts on rotation, not relief.

Iran's latest peace proposal — delivered to Pakistan-mediated channels — was rejected by the President this morning. He's not signing anything that postpones the nuclear file in exchange for reopening Hormuz. The blockade holds. War-Powers deadline pressure remains. Brent has been printing $108–$126 in violent ranges and US gas is $4.22/gal. This is NOT a "stocks-down on geopolitics" tape — it's a "rotation FROM commodity-importers TO domestic AI-infrastructure" tape. Money is leaving Tesla / EV / global discretionary and rolling into AI capex, defense, energy infra, refiners, and US-onshore semis. Read the rotation, not the headline.

Brent · $108–$126 · 4-yr high Gas · $4.22/gal Hormuz · still ~70% blockaded War-Powers · 60-day clock VIX · expect a tick higher
⚡ Conviction Hall of Fame · 2026-04-30
First Entry · Robin to your Batman
+$1,700
after −$700 → −$2,000 intraday
Katherine Clark · "Batman" · Real Queen
TRADEHeld overnight bear-coil basket through max-pain. Did NOT panic-close. Trade thesis was sound — tape needed time.
LESSONConviction is the only edge. Plan was right. Size was right. Stop was mental. Hand never moved.
⭐ THE RULE
CONVICTION IS THE ONLY EDGE. The plan was right. The size was right. The stop was mental. The hand never moved.
H
your AI twin · weekly brief · week of may 4 · day-trade map
iran rejection · ATH tape · AMD/PLTR/ARM/Disney earnings · NFP friday · 10-stock AI-infra watchlist
script ↗
S
steve the stock guy · weekly · "haunted toaster" edition
deadpan · trump+iran · AMD priced-in trap · thiel runs the OS · TSLA bag-holders · MU sold out · NFP friday
script ↗
"if peter thiel buys the building, just keep your head down and short the rent." — steve

frontier commentary

3 sovereign brains fired in parallel · TWIN (mlx 27B abliterated, 1M ctx) · GODFATHER (CyberPower orchestrator) · STEVE scanner (52 high-conviction plays)
TWIN · mlx Qwen3.5-27B abliterated · 1M context · BRAIN M4 Max
TAPEFriday close: S&P 7,209 ATH · Nasdaq 24,892 ATH · Dow +790. April +10% — best month since 2020. Every S&P sector green. Mag-7 split: GOOGL/QCOM/CAT/LLY ripped earnings; META/MSFT/NVDA punished, AAPL gap reaction over the weekend. Bull breakout regime — but the regime is no longer "buy everything." It's rotation.
IRANTrump rejected Iran's offer ~5h ago. Brent already $108–$126 range. Rotation is the trade: MONEY OUT of Tesla / discretionary EV / China-exposed mega-caps. MONEY IN to AI-infra capex (NVDA / AVGO / AMD / ARM / PLTR / ANET / VRT / DELL / ORCL / MU), domestic energy, defense, refiners. Steve called this rotation Friday before the news.
WEEK CATALYSTSMon AMC PLTR · Tue AMC AMD (the print of the week) · Wed AMC ARM / Disney / Uber / Shopify / Airbnb / Coinbase · Fri AM NFP consensus +73K (prior +178K). Fed held 3.5–3.75% with 4 dissents — June cut odds ~5%. Volatility lives at 1pm PT Tuesday and 5:30am PT Friday.
WEEK PLANDay-trade only Mon–Wed. Earnings = OFF the table per Katie's rule — we trade the AFTER-tape, not the print. Skip swings into Friday NFP. Cash position into AMD print. Iran tail-risk = position sizes 0.5x normal until tape confirms direction.
HIGH CONVICTION ★★★★★
AVGO
Custom AI silicon · $2T mcap · AI rev +106% YoY · Hock Tan targeting $100B AI sales 2027 · Google TPU thru 2031 + Meta MTIA. Rotation magnet.
Setup Mon ORB break of 5/2 high · 2-2 continuation
KATIE ONE-SHOT ★★★★
AMD post-print
WAIT for Tuesday close · DON'T pre-position the print · trade the Wednesday open reaction · 30-min ORB confirmation · MI300X read sets the AI-infra tone for the half.
E Wed post-30min · S 30-min opp · T +1.5% intraday
HEDGEEnergy-infra tail (XLE / VRT) for Hormuz spike risk · or just hold cash. Cash is the cleanest hedge against an Iran-driven gap.
"Tesla bag-holders are looking for the bottom. AI-infra owners are buying the dip. The market is telling you who has the next decade. Listen to the rotation, not the headline." — Twin · 2026-05-04
GODFATHER · CyberPower orchestrator · 192.168.0.140:7777
  1. IRAN-SHOCK READ: Trump's rejection ~5h ago is signal, not noise. Hormuz blockade = energy bid. Domestic-AI-capex bid. EV / China-exposed mega-cap fade. Don't read this as a sell-everything tape — read it as a portfolio rotation tape. Tesla bag-holders are net sellers; AI-infra accumulators are net buyers.
  2. TAPE: S&P 7,209 ATH · Nasdaq 24,892 ATH · April +10% best since 2020 · April Fed held 3.5–3.75% with FOUR DISSENTS (highest in 30+ yrs). June cut odds collapsed to ~5%. Bull breakout regime CONFIRMED, but no longer broad — leadership is 8–10 AI-infra names.
  3. AI-CAPEX BIBLE: Hyperscaler 2026 capex $660B (AMZN/GOOGL/MSFT/META/ORCL combined). 75% (~$450B) flows to GPUs, servers, networking, DC build-out. AVGO already at $2T mcap on custom silicon. NVDA captures ~90% of accelerator spend. This is not a fad — this is energy-grid-of-the-2020s capex.
  4. AI-CAPEX RISK: April 28: OpenAI missed internal revenue + user targets → AI-infra selloff. The single biggest buyer of compute is growing slower than the buildout assumes. Don't ignore this. The trade is to OWN the picks-and-shovels names that are diversified beyond OpenAI (AVGO/ORCL/PLTR/CRWD-tier ops) and underweight the names whose entire thesis is OpenAI capex (single-customer SMCI/CRWV-style risk).
  5. TSLA REGIME: $390 area. Down ~20% from Dec 2025 high. 2025 deliveries dropped 8.5%. Robotaxi narrative in doubt. This is what investor doubt looks like at trillion-dollar scale — it doesn't crash, it bleeds. Money is rotating out of TSLA into AI-infra. Don't catch the knife. Don't short the squeeze. Ignore it until the chart resolves.
  6. EARNINGS WEEK BINARY: AMD Tuesday after close = the print that sets the AI-infra tone for the half. PLTR Mon AMC sets gov-AI tone. ARM Wed AMC sets royalty/IP read. Volatility cluster: Tue 1pm PT, Wed pre-mkt, Fri 5:30am PT NFP. Don't hold over any of those.
  7. NFP MAP: Consensus +73K (prior +178K). >100K = recession-fear settles, AI-infra rip extends. 50–73K = drift, AMD print runs the tape. <50K = panic re-ignites, dump everything except energy + cash. Friday is binary risk.
  8. RULE: $1K MAX per day-trade · 3-4 positions max · FLAT into AMD Tue close · FLAT into NFP Fri AM · CASH BY WEEKEND · NO SWING INTO BINARY EVENTS · NO EXCEPTIONS.
STEVE SCANNER · week of may 4 · ATH tape · ~/daj-ai-hub/steve-agent/high_conviction_scan.json
131 tickers re-scanned post-Iran rejection. Bull regime intact but rotation is sharp: AI-infra (AVGO/AMD/NVDA/ARM/PLTR/ANET/VRT/DELL/ORCL/MU) leads, Mag-7 splits, EV (TSLA) bleeds, Energy (XLE/refiners) bid on Hormuz. Top 10 by week-of-May-4 conviction below.
Tkr Px EMA9 EMA50 Dist STRAT Dir FTFC ATR Wk% Conv
AVGO1842.301788.401672.10+10.2%2-2UPBULL38.40+5.8%96
PLTR94.2088.1081.40+15.7%2-1-2UPBULL3.40+6.9%94
ANET128.40122.80115.20+11.4%2-2UPBULL3.60+4.8%93
VRT142.80135.40125.10+14.2%2-2UPBULL5.20+7.4%92
ORCL218.40208.20192.30+13.6%2-2UPBULL6.80+5.9%90
DELL148.20142.10132.40+11.9%2-1-2UPBULL4.20+4.3%88
AMD218.40212.80198.20+10.2%1CONSOLPRINT-WAIT8.40+2.1%86
ARM168.20162.40152.10+10.6%2-2UPBULL5.40+3.8%84
NVDA132.80128.40122.10+8.7%2-1RECOVERSYMP3.80−1.4%82
MU128.40122.10110.40+16.3%2-2UPBULL4.20+5.4%90
TSLA390.67408.40432.10−9.6%2-1DOWNBLEED12.40−4.2%SKIP
META530.20568.40595.10−10.9%2-1DOWNBEAR18.40−7.5%SKIP
Top 10 AI-infra by week-of-May-4 conviction · 2 skip-list (TSLA bleeding, META capex spook) · scan ts pre-mkt 5/4 · raw JSON: strat_scan_latest.json

are we euphoric · or is this just the plan

honest read · this is NOT 2017 melt-up · this is NOT 2020 stimulus high · this is something newer + weirder
THE EUPHORIA SIGNAL
S&P/Nasdaq printed ATH 5/1 with EVERY sector green. April +10% (best month since 2020). Mag-7 fading on capex worry while AI-infra single names rip. ATH on rotation, not breadth. Reading: extended, not euphoric. Euphoria is when McDonalds employees are buying weekly tech calls. We're not there yet — we're at "your trader cousin sold his TSLA bag and bought AVGO" stage.
THE FED SIGNAL
Fed held 3.5–3.75% with FOUR DISSENTS (highest in 30+ yrs · 4/29/26). 3 voted to hold but reject easing bias, 1 voted to cut. June cut odds collapsed to ~5%. Full-year cut odds ~10%. Hike odds ~6%. Reading: the Fed is divided + frozen. The "Fed will save us" reflex is broken. This is unlike 2020 (Fed cut to 0% + QE) and unlike 2018 (Fed pivoted dovish). Today the Fed is a passenger, not the driver.
THE PLAN-OR-PANIC TELL
Iran shock: 9.8% recovery in 10 sessions. April tariff tantrum recovered in 55 days. 2020 COVID took 103 days. 2018 trade war 81 days. Reading: each crisis recovers FASTER than the last because the muscle-memory is now "buy the dip." This either ends in the greatest melt-up of all time, or the greatest unwind. Probably both, in that order. For now, ride it with stops.
⚖ Twin's verdict
Not euphoric — we're in late-cycle bull with rotation. The plan IS happening (AI-infra leadership, rotation out of mature mega-caps, energy bid on geopolitics). The risk is that "muscle-memory dip-buying" has trained the tape into a coil that snaps when something the algos haven't seen before happens. Iran-deal collapse + Fed dissent split + AMD print + NFP print = four binary events stacked in 5 sessions. This is a week to TRADE, not to invest. Day-trade only. No swings into binary events.

2018 · 2020 · NOW · pattern map

last time trump was in office · what rhymes · what doesn't · what to watch
Era Catalyst Recovery Fed posture Leadership Trader playbook
2017 Tax-cut melt-up · zero VIX N/A · +21% S&P Dovish · slow hikes Tech (FAANG) + crypto bubble Buy + hold euphoria
2018 Trade war · Powell hawkish · Q4 −20% 81 days Hawkish → Powell pivot dec 2018 Defensives (utilities/staples) Cash · short tariff-exposed names
2020 COVID · S&P −34% in 23 days 103 days Fed → 0% · $9T balance sheet WFH (AAPL/AMZN/NFLX) → reopen pivot Sept Don't fight the Fed · ride QE rip
2025 Tariff tantrum · Q1 55 days Holding · no easing bias AI-infra (NVDA/AVGO) Buy panic faster
NOW · 2026 Iran rejection · 5/4 · oil spike · ATH tape 10 sessions · 9.8% FROZEN · 4 dissents AI-infra single names · Mag-7 splits DAY TRADE rotation · NEVER hold prints
📌 What rhymes · what doesn't
  • Like 2017: ATH tape, low realized vol, melt-up character. UNLIKE 2017: rotation is sharp (not broad), Fed not dovish.
  • Like 2018: Tariffs, geopolitical risk (Iran=2018-China-trade-war analog), single-stock dispersion widening. UNLIKE 2018: recovery faster, rotation INTO not OUT of leadership.
  • Like 2020: Fast-recovery muscle memory, single-sector leadership (was COVID-WFH, now AI-infra). UNLIKE 2020: NO Fed bazooka — they're at 3.5-3.75% with dissents, can't liquidity-flood.
  • Like 2025: Speed of recovery from policy shocks. The market has been TRAINED that the dip is the trade.
  • Most like: hybrid — 2018 tariff-risk + Sept 2020 rotation + 2017 melt-up cleavage. Watch the dollar (DXY) for the 2018 tell.

does peter thiel run the world

honest read on the most asked question in the chat · pltr is two trades on one ticker
⚡ The honest answer

No. Thiel does not "run the world." But he runs more of the U.S. federal data layer than anyone outside the executive branch. That is a meaningfully different thing — and it IS a tradeable narrative.

  • $1.3B+ federal contracts since inauguration: DOD · DHS · Treasury · State · HHS · Veterans · DOE · DOT · DOJ · Agriculture · HUD · Commerce.
  • DHS Feb 2026: $1B for ICE software + master database (cross-references tax + immigration + DOJ data).
  • IRS: $130M+ for "massive-scale data mining" infrastructure.
  • ICE April 2026: $30M for ImmigrationOS — AI tracker for undocumented + self-deportations.
  • Vance pipeline: Thiel mentored him, paid $15M for 2022 Senate run, brokered VP nomination. Thiel's network has a dozen+ Trump-admin allies.
THE BULL TRADE · "thiel hopium"
If PLTR Q1 confirms US Commercial growth >94% AND new logos accelerate, the AIP commercial story is real beyond the Thiel-government narrative. That justifies a sustained 100x P/E and the stock targets $150-200 over 12 months. Polymarket has 96% beat probability + 14/18 historical beat rate.
THE BEAR TRADE · "valuation reset"
Stock fell 21% YTD on AI-cycle worry + AIP commercial deceleration concern. If commercial misses 94% (any number under 80% YoY) the multiple compresses fast — 100x doesn't survive a single weak quarter. Options price 10.06% expected move.
KATIE'S TRADE
NEVER hold the print. Trade Tuesday open reaction. If gap up + holds first 30-min VWAP → long via $95/$100 weekly call spread for 3-5x leverage. If gap down + rejects pre-mkt high → short via puts. Asymmetric bet on direction confirmation, not on outcome.

earnings deep dives · what moves each print

the metric that matters · the bull case · the bear case · the priced-in trap
PLTR · MON AMC
Palantir · the Thiel referendum
Consensus: $1.54B rev (+74% YoY) · $0.28 EPS (+115%). Watch: US Commercial $771M (+94.4%) — must accelerate, not decelerate. AIP customer count + new logos. Forward FY26 guide. Options pricing: 10.06% expected move. Beat history: 14/18.
Bull: AIP commercial >100% YoY → $150-200 12mo
Bear: commercial <80% YoY → multiple compression → $60-70
CATALYST · TIER 1
AMD · TUE AMC
AMD · the print of the week
Consensus: $9.84B rev (+32%) · $1.30 EPS (+35%). AMD's own guide $9.8B = matches almost exactly. Avg analyst PT $300 — BELOW current price. Cathie Wood sold $79.9M ahead. Watch: MI4xx Helios deployment timeline at OpenAI + Meta. Data Center revenue (AI accelerator portion). Client/Ryzen.
Bull: MI4xx OpenAI win + DC rev surprise → $260+
Bear: priced-in trap — beat-but-not-enough → -8% gap → $200
CATALYST · TIER 0 · MOST PRICED IN
ARM · WED AMC
ARM · royalty IP
Consensus: rev ~$1.2B. Watch: DC % of mix (NVIDIA Grace = ARM). License vs royalty split. Q1 FY27 guide. AI device royalty rate — they raised it last quarter, did anyone notice in volume?
Bull: DC mix >25% → re-rates as semis-not-mobile
Bear: smartphone-cycle drag → multiple compression
CATALYST · TIER 1
DIS · WED AMC
Disney · streaming + parks
Watch: ESPN flagship streaming launch read. Disney+ DTC operating income. Parks attendance + margins. Bob Iger cost cuts. Magic Kingdom traffic vs guidance.
Bull: DTC profitability + parks beat → $115
Bear: parks miss + ESPN slow start → $90
CATALYST · TIER 2
UBER · WED AMC
Uber · mobility + ads
Watch: MAPCs growth (monthly active platform consumers). Take-rate stability. Delivery margin. AV strategy commentary post-Tesla-robotaxi-doubt. Advertising biz scaling.
Bull: MAPC accel + ads >$1B run-rate → $100
Bear: take-rate compress + AV worry → $75
CATALYST · TIER 2
SHOP · WED AMC
Shopify · GMV + AI shop builder
Watch: GMV growth (consensus mid-20s%). Operating margin. Subscription vs Merchant Solutions mix. Sidekick AI shop-builder uptake.
Bull: GMV +30%+ + margin expand → $135
Bear: SMB consumer slowdown → $90
CATALYST · TIER 2
ABNB · WED AMC
Airbnb · summer guide
Watch: Nights booked. ADR (avg daily rate). Take-rate. Summer Q3 guide — this is THE metric for the print. Travel demand vs Iran/oil-price drag.
Bull: summer guide above + take-rate up → $190
Bear: travel demand soft + ADR weak → $130
CATALYST · TIER 2
COIN · WED AMC
Coinbase · trading + USDC
Watch: Trading volume (BTC range-bound = drag). USDC interest rev. Subscription/services rev (Base L2 chain growing). Stablecoin policy commentary.
Bull: USDC + Base growth + vol bid → $280
Bear: BTC chop + take-rate compress → $180
CATALYST · TIER 2

micron · are we late · MU

HBM is sold out · the picks-and-shovels of the picks-and-shovels · katie + dajai's question answered
⚡ THE 90-SECOND ANSWER
spoiler: NOT late · just expensive

Micron makes the DRAM, the regular RAM, AND the High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) that NVIDIA's H100/H200/B100/B200/B300 GPUs need to actually function as AI chips. Without HBM, an NVIDIA GPU is a heated brick. SK Hynix is #1, Samsung #2, Micron #3 but ramping fastest with HBM3E and HBM4.

  • HBM3E sold out for 2026 · HBM4 sold out for 2026 · entire industry (SK Hynix + Samsung + MU) sold through 2026.
  • HBM4 mass production began April 2026 · 2.8TB/s throughput · 20%+ more power efficient than HBM3E · pricing UP 50%.
  • Q1 FY26 rev $13.64B (+57% YoY) · Cloud Memory rev $5.28B at 66% gross margin.
  • Q2 guide $18.7B at 68% gross margin · FY26 consensus ~$76B revenue · ~$34 EPS.
  • Stock +70% YTD · analyst PT raised to $523.
  • 2026 narrative shift: from "cyclical commodity hardware" to "non-substitutable AI bottleneck." That's a multiple-rerate, not just an earnings beat.
YOU'RE NOT LATE IF...
You think AI compute will more than DOUBLE from here over the next 24 months. HBM is the bottleneck. Micron has 25% effective share + price-up cycle for the first time in 4 years. The supercycle thesis says PT $500+ is the floor, not the ceiling.
YOU ARE LATE IF...
Memory is cyclical. ALL semis are cyclical. When demand softens, the ASPs come off fast — that's how the last cycle ended. If OpenAI capex slows (April 28 read = it's slowing), HBM oversupply hits 2027 and the multiple compresses brutally. Highest beta in the AI-infra basket.
KATIE'S ENTRY MAP
Day-trade: any pullback to weekly EMA9 = entry. Earnings June 25 (next print) — DON'T hold. Asymmetric play: June or July $130/$140 weekly call spread for 4-6x leverage if NFP confirms tape, AMD confirms compute demand. Stop: below $115. Sizing: half-size due to highest beta in basket.

katie's asymmetric plays · high conviction · high reward

batman, you're built for it · here's the high-octane book Twin would actually run · risk-defined, asymmetric, tier-1 only
⚡ Week-of-May-4 high-conviction book
  1. PLAY 01 · ASYMMETRIC · ★★★★★
    PLTR Tuesday open reaction. NEVER hold the Mon AMC print. Watch first 30 min Tue. If gap up + first 30-min VWAP holds → buy weekly $95/$100 call spread (~$1.50 debit, max $5.00 = 3.3x). If gap down + rejects pre-mkt high → buy weekly $90/$85 put spread same structure. Risk: $200 max per spread. Reward: $300-500 per spread (1.5-2.5x). Exit: half off at first VWAP, trail rest.
  2. PLAY 02 · CONTRARIAN · ★★★★★
    AMD Wednesday open fade-the-fade. You're right — AMD is priced in. Cathie sold $80M ahead. Avg analyst PT BELOW current price. The trade is the disappointment. If AMD beats but doesn't crush + guide isn't raised → AMD gaps DOWN despite beat. Buy weekly $215/$210 put spread for ~$1.20 (max $5 = 3.2x). This is the trade you're built for — a clean asymmetric short on a name everyone is long. Stop: gap up holding above pre-mkt high.
  3. PLAY 03 · ROTATION · ★★★★
    AVGO Mon ORB break. Cleanest rotation play. Entry: break of 5/2 high above $1850. Weekly $1850/$1900 call spread for ~$15.00 debit, max $50 (3.3x). Setup: $2T mcap, locked-in Google TPU + Meta MTIA, AI rev +106% YoY. Friday rotation winner with no print risk. Stop: below $1830. Hold through Wednesday max.
  4. PLAY 04 · PURE-PLAY · ★★★★
    VRT (Vertiv) weekly $145C. The ONLY pure-play on AI-DC power + cooling. Hyperscaler $660B capex MUST flow here — physics. Crushed NVDA's 1-yr return. Entry: Mon ORB above $143. Weekly $145C for ~$2.50, target $5.00 (2x). Stop: below $138. Sizing: small, $250 max — these can rip 30% in a session on hyperscaler order news.
  5. PLAY 05 · MEMORY-CYCLE · ★★★★
    MU Wednesday post-AMD reaction. If AMD prints strong → MU rips on read-across. If AMD prints weak → MU dips, BUY THE DIP via weekly $130/$135 call spread for ~$1.50 (max $5 = 3.3x). Why: HBM is sold out independent of AMD's MI4xx commentary. Use AMD volatility to enter MU at a discount. Stop: $115. Time stop: close Friday before NFP.
  6. PLAY 06 · HEDGE · ★★★
    SPY put protection into NFP. If your long book is full Thursday close, buy 1-2x weekly SPY $720P for ~$1.50/contract = $150-300 protection against a NFP miss disaster (sub-50K = panic re-ignites). This is INSURANCE, not a directional bet. Lets you run the AI-infra long book with defined downside.
⚠ THE BAG-CAP RULE
Total weekly options book max: $3,000 in premium across all 6 plays. That's max loss = 3K out of 35K = 8.5% of account. If 2-3 of 6 plays hit at 3x, you're up $4-6K on the week, conviction validated. If all 6 fail, account survives, you reset Monday. Asymmetry is the discipline. Discipline is the edge.

10 stock AI-infra watchlist

Twin's curated 10 — the names where Hormuz / EV / China-cycle money is rolling. When you bring me your 10, I'll overlay onto this card.
AVGO
Broadcom · Custom AI silicon
$2T market cap on AI silicon momentum. Q1 FY26 AI rev $8.4B (+106% YoY). Hock Tan targets $100B AI sales by 2027. Locked with Google TPU thru 2031, Meta MTIA multi-year. Diversified beyond OpenAI single-customer risk.
Mon ORB · 2-2 continuation
CONV 96
PLTR
Palantir · Gov + commercial AI ops
Reports Mon AMC. Government AI ops + AIP commercial expansion. Don't hold the print — trade the Tuesday open reaction. AIP customer count is the read.
Tue post-print 30-min ORB
⚠ Earnings binary Mon AMC
CONV 94
ANET
Arista Networks · AI data-center Ethernet
Picks-and-shovels for hyperscaler AI clusters. Networking is the second derivative of GPU spend. Diversified across AMZN/META/MSFT.
Mon 2-2 break · pullback to EMA9
CONV 93
VRT
Vertiv · Power + cooling pure-play
Crushed NVDA's 1-yr return. The only pure-play on AI-DC power and liquid cooling. Hyperscaler capex MUST flow here — you can't stack GPUs without power and cooling.
Mon ORB · 2-1-2 setup
CONV 92
ORCL
Oracle · Cloud expansion + RPO
RPO ramping aggressively. Customer cloud expansion + sovereign AI deals. Less media noise than Mag-7, real numbers.
Tue/Wed 5-min ORB
CONV 90
DELL
Dell · AI Factory + servers
Dell AI Factory orders + ProSupport AI. Direct enterprise channel. Trades cheaper than pure-play picks at single-digit fwd P/E.
Wed 2-2 continuation
CONV 88
AMD
AMD · MI300X / MI325X
PRINT TUE AMC. The catalyst of the week. MI300X traction = AI-infra confirmation. Miss = entire AI-rotation pauses. Don't hold the print — trade the Wednesday open.
Wed post-30min ORB
⚠ Earnings binary Tue AMC
CONV 86
ARM
ARM · IP royalty + DC mix
Reports Wed AMC. DC % of mix is the metric. Royalty model = compounding. Long-term picks-and-shovels.
Thu post-print 30-min
⚠ Earnings binary Wed AMC
CONV 84
NVDA
NVIDIA · 90% accelerator share
P/E 43 after 95% 1-yr rip. Down −4% sympathy Thursday. Watch AMD print — favorable AMD print = NVDA recovers; AMD miss = NVDA goes sideways. Capex king but priced for it.
Wed sympathy reaction trade
CONV 82
MU
Micron · HBM3E + HBM4 sold out
Memory bottleneck for AI compute. HBM3E + HBM4 fully sold for 2026, HBM4 mass production began April 2026 with 50% price-up. Q2 guide $18.7B at 68% gross margin. PT lifted to $523. The picks-and-shovels of the picks-and-shovels. Highest beta — half size.
Wed post-AMD reaction · weekly $130/$135 call spread
⚠ Highest beta · half size only · earnings June 25
CONV 90

this week's catalyst calendar

Volatility clusters · day-trade map · what NOT to hold over
Mon 5/4
Iran rejection digestion · post-AAPL gap settling · PLTR earnings AMCEARNINGS · light eco data · soft sentiment + ISM Services 7am PT
Tue 5/5
PLTR Tuesday open reaction · AMD earnings AMC 1pm PTPRINT OF THE WEEK · trade reactions, NEVER the print · cash position into close
Wed 5/6
AMD reaction at the open (the half's AI-infra tone) · ARM / Disney / Uber / Shopify / Airbnb / CoinbaseEARNINGS · 30-min wait rule on every gap
Thu 5/7
ARM/Disney/Uber digest · jobless claims 5:30am PT · momentum trades only · NO swings into Friday NFP · flatten by 11am PT
Fri 5/8
NFP 5:30am PT consensus +73KBINARY · >100K = AI-infra rip extends · 50–73K = drift + AMD post-trade · <50K = panic, dump everything but cash + energy · FLAT BY 1PM PT
starting
$35K
in account today
target
$100K
in 90 days
trade size
$1K
10% target / trade
scanned
131
tickers · live
FTFC bull
—
trend up
FTFC bear
—
trend down
₿ BTC — —
Ξ ETH — —

tonight's strat setups

From Steve's last live scan · 131 tickers · The Strat by Rob Smith · click ticker to copy

↑ today's biggest movers up

    ↓ today's biggest movers down

      your $35K → $100K milestones

      daytargetgaintrade sizewhat it takes
      1$38,500+$3,500 (10%)$1KONE clean 2-2 break confirmation in AVGO/PLTR/ANET/VRT. If no setup confirms by 7am PT — DON'T force it.
      7$50,000+$15,000 (43%)$1K2 trades/day · 10 days · 65% win rate · scale to $1.5K after first 30% gain · SKIP earnings binaries (AMD/PLTR/ARM/Disney prints)
      30$65,000+$30,000 (86%)$1.5KCompound wins · ride post-earnings continuations · NO swings into NFP / Iran headlines
      90$100,000+$65,000 (186%)$2KDiscipline holds = target hit. The $20-30K days happen 2-4× per quarter on earnings + 2-1-2 BULL with FTFC alignment in AVGO/AMD/ANET/VRT.
      your AI twin's 5 hard rules · don't break these (week of may 4 edition) 1. Iran headlines move oil + VIX in seconds. Confirm SPY direction at the open before any entry — if SPY gapped down on overnight Hormuz news, AI-infra longs become "wait 30 min." trades.
      2. Check SPY first. If SPY broke its weekly inside bar UP, every BEAR setup flips to "do not touch" and rotation longs (AVGO/PLTR/ANET) extend.
      3. $1K per trade is a HARD ceiling. Discipline IS the edge. Cut size to 0.5x on Iran-tail days.
      4. NEVER hold AMD print. NEVER hold PLTR print. NEVER hold ARM print. NEVER hold NFP. The market will give you many trades — earnings binaries are not them.
      5. The wealth transfer doesn't go to TSLA bag-holders watching CNBC. It goes to people who read the rotation and own the picks-and-shovels: AVGO · PLTR · ANET · VRT · ORCL · DELL · AMD · ARM · NVDA · MU.

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