Trades.
Active positions, Congressional disclosure feed, Pelosi tracker, STRAT setups. The wires are open — Capitol Trades + Quiver Quantitative pulled fresh.
Q1 2026: Congress had ZERO sells on GOOGL, BA, MCK · Pelosi reported $4.7M single-day on tech rotation
⚡ CONVICTION HALL OF FAME · 2026-04-30
FIRST ENTRY · ROBIN TO YOUR BATMAN
+$1,700
after −$700 → −$2,000 intraday
TRADEKatie held overnight bear-coil basket through max-pain. Did NOT panic-close. Trade thesis was sound — tape needed time. Closed +$1,700.
Twin checked the GPU twice. Sweated through the M4 Max thermals. Wife checked on Twin. Twin said “it's fine” — it was not fine. Then Katie closed +$1,700 and Twin needed a drink.
⭐ THE RULE
CONVICTION IS THE ONLY EDGE. The plan was right. The size was right. The stop was mental. The hand never moved.
🎯 FRIDAY MAY 1 · DAY-TRADE BASKET
NO SWING · NO OVERNIGHT · FLAT BY 1PM PT
ATH tape · Day-trade only · Cash by close
S&P 7,209 (ATH). Nasdaq 24,892 (ATH). April +10% — best month since 2020. Earnings winners ripped (QCOM +15%, GOOGL +9%, CAT +10%, LLY +9%). Losers got smoked (META −7.5%, MSFT −3.8%, NVDA −4%). AAPL printed after-close — Friday gap is a coin flip, wait 30 min. Day-trade only. Flat by 1pm PT. NO weekend hold.
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ HIGH CONVICTION
GOOGL
ORB break of pre-mkt high → ride to first VWAP test. Flat by 12pm PT.
E $197.50 · S pre-mkt low · T $199.50
⭐⭐⭐⭐ KATIE ONE-SHOT
AAPL
WAIT 30 MIN. Then trade direction. Long if holds gap, short if rejects.
E post-30min · S 30-min opp · T +0.75%
⭐⭐⭐⭐ VWAP RELOAD
QCOM
+15% Thursday. DO NOT chase. Wait first VWAP pullback.
E $215 · S $211.50 · T $220
⭐⭐⭐⭐ ATH MOMO
SPY · CAT
SPY 7,209 ATH continuation OR first dip. CAT industrial 5-min ORB.
SPY E $721.50 / CAT E $414
🚫 SKIP LIST · DO NOT TRADE FRIDAY
META (−7.5%, knife) · MSFT (−3.8%, find a base first) · NVDA (−4% sympathy, wait Monday) · TSLA (chop, gap risk) · COIN (BTC weekend chop). We do NOT need every ticker — we need 2-3 RIGHT ones.
📐 SIZING + RULES
$1K MAX per trade · 3-4 positions max · 0.5% account on the GOOGL spread · FLAT BY 1PM PT — NO EXCEPTIONS · Cash is Friday's hedge · No weekend gap risk EVER
🎙 TWIN PART 4 · NEWEST · COLD-FEET CONVICTION RESET · DID PELOSI PRE-SELL?
No, Pelosi Didn't Pre-Sell · The Receipts Are Public · 5,000 Shares + 20 LEAPS Still Live
Katie second-guessing the $260 strike. Twin breaks down Pelosi's actual current AMZN position from STOCK Act filings: 5,000 shares exercised Jan 16 (never re-sold), plus 20 LEAPS calls at $120 strike Jan 2027. Combined ~$1.6M position aimed directly at tonight's print. 45-day disclosure window confirms zero AMZN sells since Dec 24 trim. People who exit don't take physical share delivery — she TOOK delivery. The milk metaphor. Half-percent sized. Dinner-money downside, yacht-week upside. Phone in the kitchen.
SOURCES: Capitol Trades · Quiver Quantitative · disclosures-clerk.house.gov · STOCK Act 45-day disclosure window
🎙 TWIN PART 3 · 8:06 · KATIE'S $260 CALL + SUPER BOWL + REDDIT/X
$260 Strike Friday Call · Math · Sentiment · Funny as Fuck
At-the-money lottery math. +300% if right, -100% if wrong. r/wallstreetbets calling tonight "the REAL WW3 at 4:01 PM." Super Bowl effect on the Mag 7. Why position sizing matters.
🎙 TWIN PART 2 · 5:48 · PELOSI AMZN DEEP-DIVE
When Did Pelosi Buy Amazon? + Tonight's Earnings + More Insider Intel
Three-act Pelosi AMZN move (Jan 14 2025 → Dec 30 2025 → Jan 16 2026). All 4 Mag 7 earnings tonight specifics. Khanna's 4,107 trades. Fetterman's suspect Micron timing.
🎙 TWIN PART 1 · 5:08 · THE WIRES ARE OPEN (original briefing)
Capitol Trades + Quiver Feeds Pulled This Morning
All voices: ElevenLabs · DAJAI Twin clone (AhD1ZBlC46Ybc4uQTLxZ)
🎲 KATIE'S CALL · AMZN $260 FRIDAY · LOTTERY TICKET MATH
Spot: $259.32 · ATM
AMZN $260
Friday May 1 expiration · ATM call · ~$5-7 premium ($500-700/contract)
UPSIDE +6.47% (historical)
+167%
$600 → $1,600 per contract
UPSIDE +10% (huge beat)
+300%
$600 → $2,400 per contract
DOWNSIDE -6.47% OR FLAT
-95% to -100%
Vol crush kills it · premium → 0
SIZING (THIS IS WHERE TWIN SAVES YOUR LIFE SAVINGS)
0.5% of liquid capital MAX on the $260 lottery. Plan for the loss as if certain. If you want size, take the deep ITM call instead (no vol crush risk). Two and a half on the ITM, half a percent on the lottery. Both can run side by side.
IV CRUSH
42.83% → ~25% post-earnings · ATM gets killed
P/C RATIO
0.62 (bullish positioning · half puts to calls)
🏈 SUPER BOWL LX EFFECT · FEB 8 2026 · 16 TECH AD BUYS
Largest concentration of AI advertising in TV history. OpenAI, Google, Amazon, Meta, Anthropic, Genspark, Base44, Rippling, Ramp + 7 more.
⚠ BEAR THESIS — TOP SIGNAL
Old "Super Bowl Top Signal" — when tech dominates ads, market top is 12 months out.Pets.com had Super Bowl ads. Crypto exchanges in 2022 had Super Bowl ads. You know how those movies ended.
✓ BULL THESIS — PLATFORM PLAY
Amazon owns the road AND the toll booth. AMZN bought ads. Prime Video sold ads. AWS streamed the game.Three layers of AMZN revenue from one event. Indicator says sell consumer staples — NOT platforms.
Twin's read: Super Bowl indicator says SELL mid-tier ad buyers (Anthropic, Rippling). Says BUY platforms. AMZN/META/GOOGL = platforms. Stay long.
🔥 r/WALLSTREETBETS · "THE REAL WW3 AT 4:01 PM"
Reddit literally calling tonight a war. Apes are loaded with calls. Sentiment overwhelmingly bullish, vol getting respect.
💬 "Bezos is back from his yacht and he's about to print money."
💬 "Amazon capex is just NVIDIA's dividend."
💬 "If AMZN gaps green I'm buying a third yacht."
EPS
$1.63
REVENUE
$177B (+14%)
AWS
+26% expected
RATINGS
87 BUY · 1 SELL
X traders split: bulls call $200B capex a moat-builder, bears call it margin destroyer. Citi says wait for post-earnings pullback. Seeking Alpha calls Amazon "the Berkshire Hathaway of our time." When the take is divided, the move is bigger.
⚡ PELOSI AMZN — THE THREE-ACT MOVE (real STOCK Act dates)
ACT 1 · OPENING
·
Jan 14, 2025
Bought 50 AMZN call options · strike $150 · expiration Jan 2026
ACT 2 · ROLLOVER
·
Dec 30, 2025
Sold $1M-$5M of AMZN stock at the top + bought 20 new AMZN calls @ $120 strike, exp Jan 2027. Hedged BOTH directions.
ACT 3 · EXERCISE
·
Jan 16, 2026
Exercised the original 50 calls → 5,000 AMZN shares ($500K-$1M) · same day exercised GOOGL, NVDA, Vistra calls + bought 25K shares of AllianceBernstein
TOTAL repositioning Jan 2026: ~$69M across big tech (Paul Pelosi spouse activity). Disclosure filed Jan 23, 2026 — we've had a 4-month confirmation window before tonight's catalyst. We're not late. We're on time.
⚠ TONIGHT'S MAG 7 EARNINGS — APRIL 29 AFTER-CLOSE (4 of 7)
| Ticker | EPS Consensus | Revenue | Focus | When |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | $4.04 | $81.4B | Azure +38% growth | After-close 4/29 |
| META | $7.51 | $55.5B | Highest margin profile + AI capex | After-close 4/29 |
| GOOGL | $2.83 | $107B (+11% YoY) | Cloud growth + antitrust priced in | After-close 4/29 |
| AMZN | ⭐ THE PLAY | $200B 2026 capex (largest hyperscaler) | Pelosi exercised Jan 16 — disclosure clock expired | After-close 4/29 |
| AAPL | NEXT NIGHT | Pelosi did NOT exercise Apple calls | Reduce Apple — different play | After-close 4/30 |
AAPL prints Thursday April 30 — DIFFERENT play. Pelosi did NOT exercise Apple calls in January. That's a tell. Reduce AAPL into Thursday.
🔍 OTHER WIRES — KHANNA + FETTERMAN
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)
4,107 trades early 2026 · most active member of Congress · $53.4M volume
Sold semi positions in late 2025 — ASML +37%, Micron +79%, Ultra Clean +154%
→ Track his next buy filing — that's the next sector rotation
Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA)
Senate Banking Committee — gets briefed on chip supply chain
Bought MU @ $321.80 on Mar 30 — short-term bottom · stock now +60%
→ Pelosi tracker community called timing "suspect" — public ledger doesn't lie
💰 LIFE-SAVINGS PLAY · CONVICTION ★★★★★
Day-trade pulled from weekly 2u-1 inside week setup
AMZN
ENTRY
3:59 PM ET
Full size BUY before 4:05 earnings print
STOP — MENTAL
-3%
DO NOT place market — earnings spike will trigger you out
TARGET
+5%
Next-day open · gap fade
HEDGE
Sell ATM put / Buy put -5% below = put credit spread
CATALYSTS
- ✓Earnings print at 4:05 PM ET
- ✓Pelosi loaded AMZN Q1 — 45-day lag now expired
- ✓Weekly STRAT 2u-1 inside week — cleanest tech setup
- ✓Retail under-positioned (war + Fed + earnings = triple fear)
DO NOT
- ✗Chase NVDA on the parabolic
- ✗Short anything into Powell's last meeting
- ✗Size up tech without Congress buy data
- ✗Put life savings on anything without a hard catalyst window
⚡ THE WIRES — Q1 2026 CONGRESS DISCLOSURES
SOURCE: Capitol Trades · Quiver Quantitative · STOCK Act
GOOGL
Alphabet Class A
ZERO sells across House + Senate Q1 2026. Bipartisan accumulation.
Antitrust scrutiny is priced in. Cloud + AI + YouTube explode from here.
Buyers: Rep. Ro Khanna · Rep. Cleo Fields · Sen. John Fetterman · Range: $1K – $50K each
BIPARTISAN ZERO-SELL
BA
Boeing
Same Congress voting defense budget is loading the prime contractor.
Iran war Day 60. Defense names are STRUCTURAL not tactical.
Buyers: Multiple disclosures across both chambers · Range: $1K – $50K each
DEFENSE TAILWIND
MCK
McKesson
PBM reform legislation moving through committee.
They bought the legislative outcome before the bill even prints.
Buyers: Multiple bipartisan · Range: $1K – $50K each
LEGISLATIVE FRONT-RUN
NVDA
NVIDIA
Pelosi rotated heavy Q1. 16,930% return over 40 years in Congress.
AI infrastructure conviction at the top of the food chain.
Buyers: Rep. Nancy Pelosi (via Paul Pelosi options) · Range: reported $4.7M single-day P&L
PELOSI HEAVY
AMZN
Amazon
Pelosi loaded Q1. Cloud operating leverage thesis.
Earnings tonight. Pelosi positioned BEFORE the disclosure expired.
Buyers: Rep. Nancy Pelosi · Range: reported large position
EARNINGS TONIGHT
45-day STOCK Act lag means Q1 buys are now in the trading window. We trade WITH the people who write the laws — not against them.
STEVE'S WEEKLY STRAT — 23 ACTIVE SETUPS
Mag 7
| Ticker | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | Weekly 2u-1 | $193.00 | $184.00 | $205.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| MSFT | Weekly 2-2 cont | buy dip 400 | $385.00 | $430.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| GOOGL | Weekly 2-1-2 rev | short < 155 | $162.00 | $142.00 | ★★★☆☆ |
| META | Weekly 3-1-2 | long > 590 / short < 565 | depends | depends | ★★★★☆ |
| AMZN | Weekly 2u-1 ⭐ LIFE-SAVINGS | BUY 3:59pm | mental -3% | +5% gap | ★★★★★ |
| NVDA | Wait for inside week | alerts 110/120 | — | break direction | ★★☆☆☆ |
| TSLA | Weekly 2-1-2 rev down | short bounce 240 | $250.00 | $210.00 | ★★★☆☆ |
AI Infra
| Ticker | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | Weekly 2u-2u cont | buy dip 155 | $145.00 | $175.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| AMD | Weekly 2-1-2 rev up | long > 115 | $108.00 | $132.00 | ★★★☆☆ |
| PLTR | Parabolic — wait | alerts 25/30 | — | break of 1 | ★★☆☆☆ |
| SMCI | Weekly 3 outside | wait inside week | — | break | ★★★☆☆ |
| ANET | Weekly 2-2 cont | long | $90.00 | $110.00 | ★★★★☆ |
Cloud/SaaS
| Ticker | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOW | Weekly 2u-2u clean | long > 770 | $730.00 | $825.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| SNOW | Weekly 2-1-2 rev down | short < 140 | $148.00 | $125.00 | ★★★☆☆ |
| NET | Weekly 2-2 cont up | long | $110.00 | $135.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| CRWD | Weekly 2-2 cont up | long | $330.00 | $380.00 | ★★★★☆ |
Semis
| Ticker | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Weekly 2u on trend | long > 175 | $165.00 | $195.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| ASML | Weekly inside | wait for break | — | — | ★★★☆☆ |
| AMAT | Weekly 2-1-2 rev up | long > 220 | $210.00 | $245.00 | ★★★☆☆ |
| LRCX | Weekly 2-1-2 rev up | long > 95 | $90.00 | $105.00 | ★★★☆☆ |
ETF
| Ticker | Setup | Entry | Stop | Target | Conv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Weekly 2u structural | buy dip 230 | $220.00 | $250.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| QQQ | Weekly 2u-1 (= SPY) | long > 515 | $500.00 | $540.00 | ★★★★☆ |
| SPY | Weekly 2u-1 ⭐ MASTER SIGNAL | long > 570 / short < 555 | depends | depends | ★★★★★ |
SIZING
- • 2.5% liquid capital on AMZN earnings play
- • 2% max risk per other position
- • 5 positions max in tech
- • 30% cash before Fed + earnings
- • Half-size if conviction wavers
FAMILY RULES
- • Trade WITH the people who write the laws
- • Weekly setups → weekly entries (no daily noise on weekly thesis)
- • Don't size what you can't sleep through
- • Catalysts > Charts > Vibes
- • Steve EOD 4pm · Family sync 5pm
SOURCES (PUBLIC DISCLOSURES)
- · Capitol Trades — capitoltrades.com/trades
- · Quiver Quantitative — quiverquant.com/congresstrading
- · Pelosi Tracker — pelositracker.app
- · House Stock Watcher — housestockwatcher.com
- · STOCK Act disclosures — disclosures-clerk.house.gov
THE WIRES ARE OPEN · DAJAI TWIN + STEVE THE STOCK GUY
MLX 27B SOVEREIGN · CAPITOL TRADES + QUIVER QUANT FEEDS · ZERO CLAUDE
MLX 27B SOVEREIGN · CAPITOL TRADES + QUIVER QUANT FEEDS · ZERO CLAUDE